Archive for the ‘business’ Category

High credit trust enables creative risk

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

When partners have reached full partnership, remarkable things start to happen. Full partnerships between organizations are the equivalent of Olympic gold.Many try, few succeed. But those who do succeed know the work involved and the skill it takes to be the best. While the road is tricky and fraught with peril, the rewards can be rich, as we see below.

High trust enables creative risk. Only when we trust each other can we risk the quantum leap into the next generation of activity. Regardless of service or products, to move beyond the status quo takes a special talent—and that talent is best tapped into through partnerships. Some of the best breakthough examples come from the American effort to conquer space. The partnerships developed between NASA and private industry are too numerous to list— but they have yielded a lot more than the beverage Tang. From microwave ovens to insulated clothing, our lives have changed dramatically thanks to these partnerships. The creative risk taking was there. And those who formed partnerships with NASA stood to benefit like no other.

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Credit and economic changes of industries

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Structural economic changes of industries are important in the sector selection process for corporate bond investors because they determine how an industry functions and will allow to make projections about the development of the credit quality of specific industries. It has to be determined whether certain changes in industry dynamics occur which have a material effect on the evolution of the industry structure. Examples of some driving forces for change are:

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Industries with structural credit losses

Monday, October 26th, 2009

Industries with structural losses have to be avoided because their profits will fall in recession and recovery as well. Defensive industries with structural gains will experience a rise in profits during the whole economic cycle.

Industry trends have to be monitored and projections about future trends have to be made because they will influence the profitability of an industry. Some major industry characteristics are:

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The defensive character of noncyclical payday sectors

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

The defensive character of noncyclical sectors pays off during stages of weak economic growth. See at what stage in the economy cycle the different industries reach their profit peaks relative to the market.

This is a basis for a sector rotation strategy but the profit cycle is not the only selection criterion. Banks show a profit rebound in the early phase of a recovery because the countercyclical Fed policy that is often observed in this economic environment results in low interest rates. A steep yield curve helps banks to increase their interest margins.

Automobile manufacturers usually realize a profit rebound at the early stages of an economic rebound because consumer confidence improves and induces a higher demand for discretionary products. In this phase favorable financing is also available and especially car manufacturers can substantially increase their sales through financing initiatives like zero-percent financing and large discounts for new car sales. Cyclical industries like automobiles have a high operating leverage which means that they will benefit at the early stages of economic recovery because they experience a rise in sales. Also industries with high financial leverage benefit from rising sales volume. Fixed financial costs like interest expenses determine financial leverage.

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Corporate spreads of loans and profits

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Corporate spreads and profits showed a close relationship during past economic cycles. Deteriorating profits as a percentage of GDP go along with wider credit spreads. Market phases with improving profits are accompanied by tighter credit spreads.

The business cycle sets the parameters for the sector rotation strategy. Sectors with a high cyclical component will outperform at the early stages of an economic expansion while noncyclical sectors will tend to underperform during an expansion phase relative to the market. The cyclicality of a sector allows predictions about the development of earnings across business cycles. For example, the business of IT hardware companies depends on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans of other companies. In an economic slowdown when CAPEX is scaled back or postponed, IT hardware companies run a higher risk of being downgraded due to a deterioration of their credit protection measures. The most recent examples are the telecommunications equipment companies Alcatel and Ericsson. Both suffered from the lack of demand by telecommunications companies in 2002.

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