Archive for the ‘economy’ Category
Monday, March 15th, 2010
Open systems increase information and intelligence. The more we share information, the more we learn. Different people can draw different conclusions from the same information, which can be invaluable. You may see data with one interpretation—I with another. We share perceptions and open each other’s eyes to fresh possibilities and new understandings of both the information and each other. Information is the best example of abundance. There’s no limit on the amount and how it can be used. Consequently, the more we have and use, the more beneficial it becomes. Organizations that have established trust and full partnership will benefit from this abundance of information and increased intelligence.
Mutual benefits = more for everyone. Again, the theory of abundance becomes reality in this dynamic. The more people benefit from an activity, the more they are willing to engage in it and the more it brings them. It is through partnerships that mutual benefits can be realized, generating wealth for everyone involve.
Tags: payment, price, Private Annuities, property, purchase real estate, shares
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Tuesday, October 27th, 2009
Structural economic changes of industries are important in the sector selection process for corporate bond investors because they determine how an industry functions and will allow to make projections about the development of the credit quality of specific industries. It has to be determined whether certain changes in industry dynamics occur which have a material effect on the evolution of the industry structure. Examples of some driving forces for change are:
- Long-term changes of growth patterns
- Changes in the customer base (demographics)
- Changes in production costs
- Product innovation
- Changes to production processes
- Structural changes of supplementary industries
- Changes of government policy
- Exits and new competitors.
Tags: bonds, business tips, credit score, get out of debt, making money, money issues, money management, money tips, payday loans, personal finances
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Monday, October 26th, 2009
Industries with structural losses have to be avoided because their profits will fall in recession and recovery as well. Defensive industries with structural gains will experience a rise in profits during the whole economic cycle.
Industry trends have to be monitored and projections about future trends have to be made because they will influence the profitability of an industry. Some major industry characteristics are:
- Pricing and cost structures (evolution over time)
- Domestic and international competition
- Technological change (pace and adaptability)
- Asset values
- Upcoming financing needs
- Potential liabilities
- Political and regulatory environment
- Government support
- Current state of regulation/deregulation.
Tags: bonds, business, credit, credit cards, economy, finances, money advice, money problems, payday loans, stock exchange
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Sunday, October 25th, 2009
Oil companies’ relative profits also peak during a recession because an economic downturn is usually accompanied by high oil prices. Utilities have a noncyclical business profile and they are subject to regulated pricing. They will realize their profit peaks relative to the market during a later stage of an economic downturn.
Consumer staples is a noncyclical sector and hence the profit peak relative to the market is reached towards the end of a recession. Profits are not robust but consumers cut spending on large discretionary purchases while the demand, for example, for food and beverages remains relatively stable across the whole economic cycle.
Group sectors according to their change in profits during recession and recovery. The profits of cyclical sectors will fall in recessions and rise during a recovery. On the other side, the profit cycle of defensive companies is countercyclical. Profits will rise in recessions and they will tend to fall in recoveries. Some industries experience structural gains which means that their profits rise during recession and recovery. Other industries suffer from structural losses which means that they realize falling profits in recession and in recovery as well. Those are industries which reached a declining stage in their industry life cycles.
Tags: crisis, foreclosure, investments, loans, money advice, mortgage, stock, stock exchange, Tenancy-in-Common, tenant, trade value
Posted in credit, credit cards, economy, finances, global markets, investing, loans | Comments Off
Friday, October 23rd, 2009
The defensive character of noncyclical sectors pays off during stages of weak economic growth. See at what stage in the economy cycle the different industries reach their profit peaks relative to the market.
This is a basis for a sector rotation strategy but the profit cycle is not the only selection criterion. Banks show a profit rebound in the early phase of a recovery because the countercyclical Fed policy that is often observed in this economic environment results in low interest rates. A steep yield curve helps banks to increase their interest margins.
Automobile manufacturers usually realize a profit rebound at the early stages of an economic rebound because consumer confidence improves and induces a higher demand for discretionary products. In this phase favorable financing is also available and especially car manufacturers can substantially increase their sales through financing initiatives like zero-percent financing and large discounts for new car sales. Cyclical industries like automobiles have a high operating leverage which means that they will benefit at the early stages of economic recovery because they experience a rise in sales. Also industries with high financial leverage benefit from rising sales volume. Fixed financial costs like interest expenses determine financial leverage.
Tags: joit, last will, Market, market cycle, market cycles, money, Partnership, payment, price, Private Annuities, tenancy
Posted in bonds, business, business tips, credit, credit cards, economy, finances | Comments Off
Thursday, October 22nd, 2009
Corporate spreads and profits showed a close relationship during past economic cycles. Deteriorating profits as a percentage of GDP go along with wider credit spreads. Market phases with improving profits are accompanied by tighter credit spreads.
The business cycle sets the parameters for the sector rotation strategy. Sectors with a high cyclical component will outperform at the early stages of an economic expansion while noncyclical sectors will tend to underperform during an expansion phase relative to the market. The cyclicality of a sector allows predictions about the development of earnings across business cycles. For example, the business of IT hardware companies depends on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans of other companies. In an economic slowdown when CAPEX is scaled back or postponed, IT hardware companies run a higher risk of being downgraded due to a deterioration of their credit protection measures. The most recent examples are the telecommunications equipment companies Alcatel and Ericsson. Both suffered from the lack of demand by telecommunications companies in 2002.
Tags: Aids finance, Debt, economics, estate, Estate Planning, heir, income, inheritace, insurance, Interest, rate
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Wednesday, October 21st, 2009
After analyzing industry life cycles and the competitive environment of industries the macroeconomic environment has to be incorporated in the industry analysis process. For this purpose the focus will be on business cycles and the cyclicality of industries.
Corporate profits hava a long history as a percentage of GDP across several economic cycles. Corporate profits tend to fall long before the economy goes through a recession. Corporate profits usually reach their bottom towards the end of a recession. They start to rebound with rising economic activity. During the last expansion, which was one of the longest and that stretched through the 1990s, corporate profits started to deteriorate already in 1998. Sharply rising equity valuations, a focus on shareholder value and an undisciplined build-up of leverage induced a decline in profits when the earnings growth trend reversed. Every business cycle will be different from past cycles so the task is to identify evolving trends in order to make reliable projections about future performance.
Tags: annuitant, Annuities, banking, banks, Bearish Patterns, Budgeting, cash, company costs, currency cycles, Debt
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Tuesday, August 25th, 2009
You can buy stock in developed countries such as Germany and the United States. Many emerging markets such as Venezuela and Thailand also have stock markets. You can buy their stocks individually on the U.S. markets or through a foreign brokerage account. You can also buy U.S. mutual funds that specialize in foreign and emerging stocks. There are also CEFs and ETFs that own non-U.S. stocks.
Non-U.S. stocks have all the emotional content of U.S. stocks. Herd psychosis, powerlessness, issues with brokers and mutual funds, overconfidence, and all the rest are common in foreign investing. Foreign stocks also have additional traps we rarely encounter with local companies.Foreign stocks are bought and sold in foreign currencies. Foreign companies make profits and losses in foreign currencies. Because you spend U.S. dollars, foreign stock prices must be translated into U.S. dollars before you can determine if you have any gains or losses. This adds volatility to foreign stock prices. If the Euro sinks by 15 percent and your German auto stock declines in Euros by 15 percent, you lose 30 percent in dollars. If the Euro rises by 15 percent and the auto stock rises by 15 percent, you gain 30 percent in dollars. A similar U.S. auto stock would only swing up and down 15 percent.
Tags: banking, credit cards, credit score, getting out of debt, home value
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Wednesday, August 5th, 2009
Unmanageable investments gnaw at the investor, often for years or decades. Unmanageability manifests as anger, frustration, and resentment. Stockbrokers confuse investors with lots of numbers and stories and then sell them inappropriate stocks. The investors cannot sue. They were shown prospectuses and all the legal mumblings were made. What is left is a dud stock and a resentment against the broker, the stocks, the brokerage house, and the whole idea of buying stocks.
Typically, the sense of powerlessness leads to passivity. Unmanageability leads to attempts to manage people, institutions, and policies. Change brokers, change stocks, change Realtors, keep it all in a money market account. In the extreme, unmanageability manifests as rage. Investors who shoot their broker, call in bomb threats, plant false rumors on the Internet, or manipulate stock prices are attempting to control unmanageable investments.
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Tuesday, May 26th, 2009
Legal and regulatory provisions affect debt for equity swaps throughout the transaction and subsequently, until lenders have disposed of their shareholdings. Firstly, there is the need to ensure that the transaction is structured in compliance with all local legal and regulatory provisions. In addition, lenders must ensure that they are not in breach of laws and regulations that apply to them as a result of them being:
- Substantial shareholders in a company.
- Financial institutions holding shares in a non-financial entity.
Laws and regulations relating to the shareholdings held by the lenders in general, and the banks in particular, include:
- Obligations under corporate legislation, or local stock exchange regulation, to disclose acquisitions and movements in shareholdings above a certain threshold.
- The need to comply with local insider dealing legislation.
- In certain circumstances, local and regional mergers regulation may be triggered as a result of the lenders acquiring a substantial shareholding in a company. Dispensation may need to be applied for.
- In some countries there are rules that restrict banks holding shares in non-bank companies. Dispensation is usually available if the shares are acquired to facilitate a rescue.
- Lenders may become a ‘connected party’ with the company and may, as a result, become subject to additional legal and regulatory provisions that govern their dealings with it.
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