Mutual benefits = more for everyone. Again, the theory of abundance becomes reality in this dynamic. The more people benefit from an activity, the more they are willing to engage in it and the more it brings them. It is through partnerships that mutual benefits can be realized, generating wealth for everyone involve.

• Long-term changes of growth patterns
• Changes in the customer base (demographics)
• Changes in production costs
• Product innovation
• Changes to production processes
• Structural changes of supplementary industries
• Changes of government policy
• Exits and new competitors.

Industry trends have to be monitored and projections about future trends have to be made because they will influence the profitability of an industry. Some major industry characteristics are:

• Pricing and cost structures (evolution over time)
• Domestic and international competition
• Technological change (pace and adaptability)
• Asset values
• Upcoming financing needs
• Potential liabilities
• Political and regulatory environment
• Government support
• Current state of regulation/deregulation.

Consumer staples is a noncyclical sector and hence the profit peak relative to the market is reached towards the end of a recession. Profits are not robust but consumers cut spending on large discretionary purchases while the demand, for example, for food and beverages remains relatively stable across the whole economic cycle.

Group sectors according to their change in profits during recession and recovery. The profits of cyclical sectors will fall in recessions and rise during a recovery. On the other side, the profit cycle of defensive companies is countercyclical. Profits will rise in recessions and they will tend to fall in recoveries. Some industries experience structural gains which means that their profits rise during recession and recovery. Other industries suffer from structural losses which means that they realize falling profits in recession and in recovery as well. Those are industries which reached a declining stage in their industry life cycles.

This is a basis for a sector rotation strategy but the profit cycle is not the only selection criterion. Banks show a profit rebound in the early phase of a recovery because the countercyclical Fed policy that is often observed in this economic environment results in low interest rates. A steep yield curve helps banks to increase their interest margins.

Automobile manufacturers usually realize a profit rebound at the early stages of an economic rebound because consumer confidence improves and induces a higher demand for discretionary products. In this phase favorable financing is also available and especially car manufacturers can substantially increase their sales through financing initiatives like zero-percent financing and large discounts for new car sales. Cyclical industries like automobiles have a high operating leverage which means that they will benefit at the early stages of economic recovery because they experience a rise in sales. Also industries with high financial leverage benefit from rising sales volume. Fixed financial costs like interest expenses determine financial leverage.

The business cycle sets the parameters for the sector rotation strategy. Sectors with a high cyclical component will outperform at the early stages of an economic expansion while noncyclical sectors will tend to underperform during an expansion phase relative to the market. The cyclicality of a sector allows predictions about the development of earnings across business cycles. For example, the business of IT hardware companies depends on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans of other companies. In an economic slowdown when CAPEX is scaled back or postponed, IT hardware companies run a higher risk of being downgraded due to a deterioration of their credit protection measures. The most recent examples are the telecommunications equipment companies Alcatel and Ericsson. Both suffered from the lack of demand by telecommunications companies in 2002.

Corporate profits hava a long history as a percentage of GDP across several economic cycles. Corporate profits tend to fall long before the economy goes through a recession. Corporate profits usually reach their bottom towards the end of a recession. They start to rebound with rising economic activity. During the last expansion, which was one of the longest and that stretched through the 1990s, corporate profits started to deteriorate already in 1998. Sharply rising equity valuations, a focus on shareholder value and an undisciplined build-up of leverage induced a decline in profits when the earnings growth trend reversed. Every business cycle will be different from past cycles so the task is to identify evolving trends in order to make reliable projections about future performance.

Non-U.S. stocks have all the emotional content of U.S. stocks. Herd psychosis, powerlessness, issues with brokers and mutual funds, overconfidence, and all the rest are common in foreign investing. Foreign stocks also have additional traps we rarely encounter with local companies.Foreign stocks are bought and sold in foreign currencies. Foreign companies make profits and losses in foreign currencies. Because you spend U.S. dollars, foreign stock prices must be translated into U.S. dollars before you can determine if you have any gains or losses. This adds volatility to foreign stock prices. If the Euro sinks by 15 percent and your German auto stock declines in Euros by 15 percent, you lose 30 percent in dollars. If the Euro rises by 15 percent and the auto stock rises by 15 percent, you gain 30 percent in dollars. A similar U.S. auto stock would only swing up and down  15 percent.

Typically, the sense of powerlessness leads to passivity. Unmanageability leads to attempts to manage people, institutions, and policies. Change brokers, change stocks, change Realtors, keep it all in a money market account. In the extreme, unmanageability manifests as rage. Investors who shoot their broker, call in bomb threats, plant false rumors on the Internet, or manipulate stock prices are attempting to control unmanageable investments.

• Substantial shareholders in a company.
• Financial institutions holding shares in a non-financial entity.

Laws and regulations relating to the shareholdings held by the lenders in general, and the banks in particular, include:

• Obligations under corporate legislation, or local stock exchange regulation, to disclose acquisitions and movements in shareholdings above a certain threshold.
• The need to comply with local insider dealing legislation.
• In certain circumstances, local and regional mergers regulation may be triggered as a result of the lenders acquiring a substantial shareholding in a company. Dispensation may need to be applied for.
• In some countries there are rules that restrict banks holding shares in non-bank companies. Dispensation is usually available if the shares are acquired to facilitate a rescue.
• Lenders may become a ‘connected party’ with the company and may, as a result, become subject to additional legal and regulatory provisions that govern their dealings with it.