Capital goods, paper, and metals and mining companies realize their respective profit peaks at the later stages of an economic expansion as they produce goods and services whose demand is closely tied to economic activity. Additionally business peak cycles are accompanied by inflation as demand exceeds supply and for example, basic material industries experience higher profit margins in this environment because their production costs are not significantly affected by inflation and, on the other side, they can increase prices for the finished products. Industries with a high operating leverage benefit as well because their costs are fixed in nominal terms and revenues increase with inflation. The fixed costs in a company’s operating structure determine the operating leverage. Generally, it can be said that industries with a high fixed cost base and high inventory costs, for example, the paper and the aluminum industry, are always under pressure to keep capacity utilization rates high because decreasing capacity utilization rates will have an immediate adverse effect on profitability.

The defensive character of noncyclical sectors pays off during stages of weak economic growth. See at what stage in the economy cycle the different industries reach their profit peaks relative to the market.

This is a basis for a sector rotation strategy but the profit cycle is not the only selection criterion. Banks show a profit rebound in the early phase of a recovery because the countercyclical Fed policy that is often observed in this economic environment results in low interest rates. A steep yield curve helps banks to increase their interest margins.

Automobile manufacturers usually realize a profit rebound at the early stages of an economic rebound because consumer confidence improves and induces a higher demand for discretionary products. In this phase favorable financing is also available and especially car manufacturers can substantially increase their sales through financing initiatives like zero-percent financing and large discounts for new car sales. Cyclical industries like automobiles have a high operating leverage which means that they will benefit at the early stages of economic recovery because they experience a rise in sales. Also industries with high financial leverage benefit from rising sales volume. Fixed financial costs like interest expenses determine financial leverage.

Corporate spreads and profits showed a close relationship during past economic cycles. Deteriorating profits as a percentage of GDP go along with wider credit spreads. Market phases with improving profits are accompanied by tighter credit spreads.

The business cycle sets the parameters for the sector rotation strategy. Sectors with a high cyclical component will outperform at the early stages of an economic expansion while noncyclical sectors will tend to underperform during an expansion phase relative to the market. The cyclicality of a sector allows predictions about the development of earnings across business cycles. For example, the business of IT hardware companies depends on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans of other companies. In an economic slowdown when CAPEX is scaled back or postponed, IT hardware companies run a higher risk of being downgraded due to a deterioration of their credit protection measures. The most recent examples are the telecommunications equipment companies Alcatel and Ericsson. Both suffered from the lack of demand by telecommunications companies in 2002.

After analyzing industry life cycles and the competitive environment of industries the macroeconomic environment has to be incorporated in the industry analysis process. For this purpose the focus will be on business cycles and the cyclicality of industries.

Corporate profits hava a long history as a percentage of GDP across several economic cycles. Corporate profits tend to fall long before the economy goes through a recession. Corporate profits usually reach their bottom towards the end of a recession. They start to rebound with rising economic activity. During the last expansion, which was one of the longest and that stretched through the 1990s, corporate profits started to deteriorate already in 1998. Sharply rising equity valuations, a focus on shareholder value and an undisciplined build-up of leverage induced a decline in profits when the earnings growth trend reversed. Every business cycle will be different from past cycles so the task is to identify evolving trends in order to make reliable projections about future performance.

Some investors who can process emotions quickly enjoy foreign stocks. Non-U.S. stocks are idea investments with great idea complexity. The romantic, foreign traveler who realizes the risk but enjoys the hunt can have fun here. Foreign and emerging markets are less picked over than the U.S. market. In the midst of the chaos, there are tremendous bargains. If you like to read about China and Israel, travel to Turkey and Paris, or think about Euros versus yen, then this may be in your comfort zone. For the foreign traveler, who is practically addicted to foreign investing, 50 stocks will provide a lifetime of entertainment. But most investors will be rattled by the volatility and dishonesty.

Even local investors are turned off by the irregularities overseas. Investors in most foreign and emerging markets invest in bank savings instruments, government bonds, and real estate. Only in the last five years has there been general interest in stocks. Huge American brokers, mutual funds, and investment banks see tremendous profits to be made from instilling an “equity culture” overseas. Not only can they sell products to overseas investors, but they can sell U.S. investors turned off by the U.S. market hot foreign and emerging market products.

Vast amounts of propaganda have been produced to instill equity culture overseas. The two pillars of the platform are that stocks are the best investment for the long-run and stocks are the only investment with returns high enough to save the shaky retirement systems of European and Asian countries. Respected newspapers and magazines looking for large ad revenues from the campaign have joined the chorus. Politicians looking for votes have enacted 401(k)-type legislation. Unfortunately, equity culture is not likely to make many investors happy.

The volatility of foreign currency alone may place these stocks outside your comfort zone. In the Asian collapse of 1997-1998, most currencies declined by more than 50 percent and many stock markets collapsed by 50 percent in local currencies, leaving U.S. investors with 75 percent and greater dollar losses.

The range of loss is greater than in the United States. But the speed is also faster. The worst one-day loss in the overall U.S. market was 22 percent. Emerging markets have lost half their value in a single day. Some have closed and never reopened, essentially wiping out all values. If you find volatility disturbing, stocks, especially foreign and emerging market stocks, are outside your comfort zone.

In many non-U.S. markets, corporate employees and insiders have less respect for outside shareholders than they do here. If U.S. shareholders get too irritated, they can band together and oust management and other employees who are siphoning off all the earnings. In many overseas markets, insiders cannot be ousted, while minority shareholders may find their stock canceled or redeemed.

Few emerging markets have effective stock market regulation. In the United States and many developed countries, stocks cannot be bought and sold on the basis of secret corporate information. In emerging markets, this is common, even if it is technically illegal. It is also difficult in many emerging markets to cash out of profits when they do occur. In the United States, stock sales are settled in three days. In emerging markets, settlement dates and procedures can be vague and money is lost along the way. The level of unmanageability is much higher with emerging markets than in the United States.

You can buy stock in developed countries such as Germany and the United States. Many emerging markets such as Venezuela and Thailand also have stock markets. You can buy their stocks individually on the U.S. markets or through a foreign brokerage account. You can also buy U.S. mutual funds that specialize in foreign and emerging stocks. There are also CEFs and ETFs that own non-U.S. stocks.

Non-U.S. stocks have all the emotional content of U.S. stocks. Herd psychosis, powerlessness, issues with brokers and mutual funds, overconfidence, and all the rest are common in foreign investing. Foreign stocks also have additional traps we rarely encounter with local companies.Foreign stocks are bought and sold in foreign currencies. Foreign companies make profits and losses in foreign currencies. Because you spend U.S. dollars, foreign stock prices must be translated into U.S. dollars before you can determine if you have any gains or losses. This adds volatility to foreign stock prices. If the Euro sinks by 15 percent and your German auto stock declines in Euros by 15 percent, you lose 30 percent in dollars. If the Euro rises by 15 percent and the auto stock rises by 15 percent, you gain 30 percent in dollars. A similar U.S. auto stock would only swing up and down  15 percent.

Unmanageable investments gnaw at the investor, often for years or decades. Unmanageability manifests as anger, frustration, and resentment. Stockbrokers confuse investors with lots of numbers and stories and then sell them inappropriate stocks. The investors cannot sue. They were shown prospectuses and all the legal mumblings were made. What is left is a dud stock and a resentment against the broker, the stocks, the brokerage house, and the whole idea of buying stocks.

Typically, the sense of powerlessness leads to passivity. Unmanageability leads to attempts to manage people, institutions, and policies. Change brokers, change stocks, change Realtors, keep it all in a money market account. In the extreme, unmanageability manifests as rage. Investors who shoot their broker, call in bomb threats, plant false rumors on the Internet, or manipulate stock prices are attempting to control unmanageable investments.

If there is a punch line to this book, a must-do for your action plan or a secret to getting out of debt, increasing your discretionary income is it. You’ve got to make this your central mission. You need to realize that every dollar flowing in and out of your household affects your discretionary income.

With that in mind, there are only three real ways you can increase your discretionary income. While there might be a million different tips and tricks, they all still fall under one of these three categories:

Increase your household income. If you increase the amount of money coming in, there’s a good chance you’ll increase the amount of money left over. But it’s also one of the hardest things to do. It requires getting a raise or second job, or developing some type of passive income like owning rental property.

Decrease your fixed expenses. Our fixed expenses are often some of our biggest, which means we can make a huge impact on our discretionary income by lowering them. But finding a lower-rent apartment, getting rid of a car payment, or eliminating your child’s preschool tuition is a big decision that requires major life changes. Chances are, you’ll adjust your fixed expenses over the long-term, not overnight.

Decrease your variable expenses. Decreasing your variable expenses is the only real change you can make today. You can choose to say no to the iced mocha, skip the big birthday gift for Mom, or pass on that “thing” you think you really deserve. But let’s face it, that’s all the fun stuff. Knowing how hard it’ll be to cut these expenses, it’s important to remember that this change is temporary, and also to reward yourself as you make progress.

While you could just lump all expenses into one category, I think it is crucial to separate them. The reason for this separation has to do with how you spend money, and more specifically, how you chip away at your discretionary income.

Fixed expenses are not just those expenses that are the exact same amount every month, but they are the ones that don’t change if you are reckless, lose control, or rationalize. Essentially, you pay them every month and the amount due isn’t determined by your emotions or psychology. Some examples of fixed expenses are rent or mortgage, car payments, utility bills, and tuition.

Variable expenses, on the other hand, are expenses that can vary widely from month to month, depending on your money attitudes and willpower. When you’re having a hard time breaking even each month, much less creating discretionary income to pay off debt, variable expenses are usually the culprit. Variable expenses can include things like clothes, dining out, groceries, gifts, and leisure activities.